HCMC Condo Prices Hit Nearly 120M VND per Square Meter
HCMC condo prices hit a new peak of 120 million VND/m² in Q1, fueled by luxury launches. Market struggles with low absorption and affordability mismatch.
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HCMC Condo Prices Hit Record Highs
The Ho Chi Minh City real estate market has reached a new pricing milestone, with average condo prices hitting nearly 120 million VND (approximately 4,691 USD) per square meter in Q1/2025. This marks a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 47% jump compared to the same period in 2024, according to a market report from Cushman & Wakefield.
Trang Bùi, General Director of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, attributes this sharp price increase to the overwhelming dominance of luxury and high-end apartment projects launched in the first quarter. Roughly 2,392 new units entered the market, nearly all priced above 100 million VND/m². These projects are led by developers specializing in upscale properties, such as Masterise Homes, Vinhomes, Gamuda Land, and Keppel Land.
Sales Slide as Prices Outpace Incomes
While new supply surged in both volume and price, market demand failed to keep pace. Cushman & Wakefield reported that only 1,101 condo units were successfully transacted in Q1, a steep 58% drop from the previous quarter. The poor absorption rate underlines a significant mismatch between high prices and buyers’ purchasing power, despite various sales incentives like extended payment plans (up to three years) and discounts of 10–25%.
DKRA’s data revealed a 60% drop in condo sales volume in Q1/2025 from the previous quarter. Analysts at DKRA point out that this dramatic slowdown is driven not only by market timing but also by unsustainable pricing. Both real homebuyers and investors are finding it increasingly difficult to justify the soaring costs.
High Prices Hurt Market Absorption
Industry experts warn that the current pricing trajectory is outpacing real income growth in the city. With average condo prices reaching nearly 120 million VND/m², many middle-income earners are being priced out of the market entirely. The absorption rate of new launches continues to fall, even as developers attempt to sweeten deals through aggressive promotional strategies.
Compounding the issue is the dominance of high-end supply. According to Cushman & Wakefield, 77% of new condo projects launched in Q1 fall under the luxury or premium category. Affordable housing — typically under 40 million VND/m² — remains extremely limited, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch.
Buyers Shift to Suburbs and Satellites
Looking ahead to Q2 and beyond, Cushman & Wakefield forecasts approximately 9,500 new units will be launched in HCMC, the majority of which will still be in the premium or luxury categories. The projected average price is expected to remain at around 120 million VND/m².
In 2026, the firm estimates nearly 10,000 new units will be introduced, with a sharp jump to 15,000 units in 2027. However, unless developers diversify pricing strategies and product offerings, the risk of over-supply in the luxury segment could become a major drag on the market.
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